V-Lab
Hua Hong Grace Semiconductor Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
92.31%
1 Week
96.84%
1 Month
104.80%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 07:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 7, 2023 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 236% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1794 | 11.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7767 | 35.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1259 | -6.18*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.9994 | 0.92 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.4294 | 1.20 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5148 | 1.14 |
Persistence:
0.893
Half-life:
6 days
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