V-Lab
Hua Hong Grace Semiconductor Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
91.48%
decreased by 9.84%
1 Week
91.06%
decreased by 10.26%
1 Month
90.03%
decreased by 11.29%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 07:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 7, 2023 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5586 | 3.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1660 | 3.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7527 | 9.58*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.1565 | -3.09*** |
Persistence:
0.919
Half-life:
8 days
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