V-Lab
Hua Hong Grace Semiconductor Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
102.46%
decreased by 10.85%
1 Week
101.12%
decreased by 12.19%
1 Month
96.38%
decreased by 16.93%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 07:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 7, 2023 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 28 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 28 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.48 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 18.5331 | 3.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0900 | 19.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9760 | 150.24*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.4808 | 12.13*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
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