V-Lab
Yamada Consulting Group Co MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
21.59%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Week
22.54%
increased by 0.75%
1 Month
24.18%
increased by 2.39%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 23, 2001 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1778 | 25.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6613 | 59.01*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0154 | 1.30 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0475 | 1.67* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0290 | 2.92*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9664 | 78.67*** |
Persistence:
0.847
Half-life:
4 days
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