Yamada Consulting Group Co MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
18.38%
increased by 0.41%
1 Week
20.23%
increased by 2.26%
1 Month
23.37%
increased by 5.40%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 23, 2001 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 66 | |
| αARCH | 0.1766 | 6.18*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6620 | 18.31*** |
| γleverage | 0.0149 | 0.36 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0400 | 1.01 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0284 | 1.49 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9678 | 43.99*** |
0.846
Persistence4d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1766 | 6.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6620 | 18.31*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0149 | 0.36 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0400 | 1.01 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0284 | 1.49 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9678 | 43.99*** |
Persistence:
0.846
Half-life:
4 days
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