V-Lab
Yamada Consulting Group Co MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
18.90%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Week
20.29%
increased by 1.00%
1 Month
22.70%
increased by 3.41%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 23, 2001 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 66 | |
| αARCH | 0.1769 | 6.18*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6623 | 18.40*** |
| γleverage | 0.0160 | 0.39 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0413 | 0.98 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0286 | 1.47 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9675 | 42.97*** |
0.847
Persistence4d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1769 | 6.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6623 | 18.40*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0160 | 0.39 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0413 | 0.98 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0286 | 1.47 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9675 | 42.97*** |
Persistence:
0.847
Half-life:
4 days
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