V-Lab
Yamada Consulting Group Co GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
28.27%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Week
30.38%
increased by 1.86%
1 Month
37.15%
increased by 8.63%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 23, 2001 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 58 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 58 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.88 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 58-day half-lifev = 2.88 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 24.0059 | 0.72 |
| αARCH | 0.1255 | 15.35*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9881 | 61.03*** |
| νDF | 2.8819 | 11.70*** |
0.988
Persistence58d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 24.0059 | 0.72 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1255 | 15.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9881 | 61.03*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.8819 | 11.70*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
58 days
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