V-Lab
Yamada Consulting Group Co GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
25.90%
increased by 0.10%
1 Week
28.27%
increased by 2.47%
1 Month
35.68%
increased by 9.88%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 08:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 23, 2001 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 57 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 57 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.88 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 23.9752 | 2.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1259 | 60.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9879 | 239.84*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.8807 | 46.38*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
57 days
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