V-Lab
Yamada Consulting Group Co GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
25.08%
decreased by 0.69%
1 Week
27.48%
increased by 1.71%
1 Month
34.95%
increased by 9.18%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 07:24 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 23, 2001 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 59 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 59 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.88 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 59-day half-lifev = 2.88 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 24.2070 | 0.73 |
| αARCH | 0.1250 | 15.73*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9884 | 62.82*** |
| νDF | 2.8787 | 11.97*** |
0.988
Persistence59d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 24.2070 | 0.73 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1250 | 15.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9884 | 62.82*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.8787 | 11.97*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
59 days
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