Yamada Consulting Group Co GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
20.76%
increased by 0.73%
1 Week
22.75%
increased by 2.72%
1 Month
29.01%
increased by 8.98%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 23, 2001 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 68 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 68 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.81 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 68-day half-lifev = 3.81 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 20.1901 | 0.89 |
| αscore | 0.1292 | 14.20*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9899 | 89.24*** |
| νDF | 3.8136 | 6.33*** |
0.990
Persistence68d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 20.1901 | 0.89 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1292 | 14.20*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9899 | 89.24*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.8136 | 6.33*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
68 days
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