V-Lab
Yamada Consulting Group Co Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
18.59%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
18.89%
increased by 0.23%
1 Month
19.51%
increased by 0.85%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 23, 2001 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7972 | 6.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1710 | 9.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7197 | 25.56*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.1905 | -1.95* |
| γ2 | 0.1940 | 1.19 |
| γ3 | -0.0802 | -0.55 |
| γ4 | 0.2886 | 1.80* |
| γ5 | -0.4317 | -2.15** |
| γ6 | 0.4174 | 2.13** |
| γ7 | -0.3587 | -2.15** |
| γ8 | 0.2624 | 1.51 |
| γ9 | -0.2637 | -1.34 |
| γ10 | 0.2876 | 2.05** |
Persistence:
0.891
Half-life:
6 days
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