V-Lab
Synapsoft Corporation GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
48.56%
decreased by 1.84%
1 Week
50.16%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Month
53.92%
increased by 3.52%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.94 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 13.7250 | 2.14** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1232 | 7.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9223 | 27.83*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.9392 | 5.08*** |
Persistence:
0.922
Half-life:
9 days
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