V-Lab
Synapsoft Corporation Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
44.04%
increased by 0.09%
1 Week
45.91%
increased by 1.96%
1 Month
46.34%
increased by 2.39%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.9164 | 2.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1231 | 0.91 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0316 | 0.25 |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 30.8713 | 2.00** |
| γ2 | -50.1159 | -1.98** |
| γ3 | 35.6166 | 2.26** |
| γ4 | -22.5474 | -2.66*** |
| γ5 | 6.6162 | 1.01 |
Persistence:
0.155
Half-life:
0 days
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