V-Lab
Avon Technologies PLC GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
49.11%
decreased by 3.09%
1 Week
50.57%
decreased by 1.63%
1 Month
54.73%
increased by 2.53%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 30, 2020 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.69 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 16.3957 | 2.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0748 | 12.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9558 | 56.45*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.6855 | 10.45*** |
Persistence:
0.956
Half-life:
15 days
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