V-Lab
Avon Technologies PLC GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
65.90%
decreased by 4.42%
1 Week
65.80%
decreased by 4.52%
1 Month
65.49%
decreased by 4.83%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 06:40 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 30, 2020 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 17 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 17 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.69 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 17-day half-lifev = 2.69 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 16.5560 | 0.65 |
| αARCH | 0.0702 | 3.15*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9597 | 15.22*** |
| νDF | 2.6881 | 2.62*** |
0.960
Persistence17d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 16.5560 | 0.65 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0702 | 3.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9597 | 15.22*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.6881 | 2.62*** |
Persistence:
0.960
Half-life:
17 days
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