V-Lab
Avon Technologies PLC GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
64.44%
decreased by 3.88%
1 Week
64.45%
decreased by 3.87%
1 Month
64.47%
decreased by 3.85%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 05:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 30, 2020 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 17 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 17 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.68 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 17-day half-lifev = 2.68 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 16.5212 | 0.66 |
| αARCH | 0.0705 | 3.12*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9590 | 14.98*** |
| νDF | 2.6824 | 2.62*** |
0.959
Persistence17d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 16.5212 | 0.66 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0705 | 3.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9590 | 14.98*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.6824 | 2.62*** |
Persistence:
0.959
Half-life:
17 days
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