V-Lab
Avon Technologies PLC GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
59.22%
increased by 0.60%
1 Week
59.66%
increased by 1.04%
1 Month
60.99%
increased by 2.37%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 08:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 30, 2020 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.68 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 16.4589 | 2.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0728 | 12.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9571 | 57.86*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.6838 | 10.45*** |
Persistence:
0.957
Half-life:
16 days
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