Avon Technologies PLC GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 28th, 2026
1 Day
64.88%
decreased by 5.07%
1 Week
64.33%
decreased by 5.62%
1 Month
62.82%
decreased by 7.13%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 07:00 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 30, 2020 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.74 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 11-day half-lifev = 3.74 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 14.4196 | 1.30 |
| αscore | 0.0919 | 3.26*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9395 | 18.36*** |
| νDF | 3.7445 | 1.30 |
0.939
Persistence11d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 14.4196 | 1.30 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0919 | 3.26*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9395 | 18.36*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.7445 | 1.30 |
Persistence:
0.939
Half-life:
11 days
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