Avon Technologies PLC Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
49.17%
increased by 1.61%
1 Week
49.61%
increased by 2.05%
1 Month
49.78%
increased by 2.22%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 30, 2020 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9519 | 6.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1207 | 2.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2980 | 1.28 |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 2.0219 | 4.50*** |
| γ2 | -3.4269 | -4.78*** |
| γ3 | 2.4838 | 4.16*** |
| γ4 | -1.4854 | -2.97*** |
| γ5 | 0.4580 | 1.30 |
Persistence:
0.419
Half-life:
1 days
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