V-Lab
Avon Technologies PLC Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
36.95%
increased by 1.16%
1 Week
37.49%
increased by 1.70%
1 Month
37.61%
increased by 1.82%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 08:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 30, 2020 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6705 | 4.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1157 | 2.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.7538 | -0.34 |
| γ2 | 4.4260 | 1.20 |
| γ3 | -6.1790 | -1.54 |
| γ4 | 1.0985 | 0.23 |
| γ5 | 3.8073 | 1.04 |
| γ6 | -2.0906 | -0.78 |
| γ7 | -2.3608 | -0.82 |
| γ8 | 4.8096 | 1.66* |
| γ9 | -5.4811 | -2.25** |
| γ10 | 3.8529 | 2.70*** |
Persistence:
0.116
Half-life:
0 days
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