Avon Technologies PLC Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
44.75%
increased by 2.09%
1 Week
45.93%
increased by 3.27%
1 Month
46.36%
increased by 3.70%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 07:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 30, 2020 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9509 | 6.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1226 | 2.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2766 | 1.15 |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 2.0055 | 4.48*** |
| γ2 | -3.3870 | -4.72*** |
| γ3 | 2.4188 | 3.90*** |
| γ4 | -1.3535 | -2.23** |
| γ5 | 0.0974 | 0.12 |
Persistence:
0.399
Half-life:
1 days
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