V-Lab
Cafe24 Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
102.63%
increased by 39.36%
1 Week
86.06%
increased by 22.79%
1 Month
78.23%
increased by 14.96%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 07:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 8, 2018 to Jul 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2187 | 11.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1820 | 4.95*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0061 | -0.20 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.3275 | 0.39 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0841 | 0.36 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8407 | 2.00** |
Persistence:
0.398
Half-life:
1 days
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