V-Lab
Cafe24 Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
91.99%
increased by 38.68%
1 Week
72.80%
increased by 19.49%
1 Month
63.45%
increased by 10.14%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 07:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 8, 2018 to Jul 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0599 | 4.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1958 | 3.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2363 | 1.67* |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.8348 | -0.94 |
| γ2 | 2.2918 | 1.51 |
| γ3 | -3.1367 | -2.39** |
| γ4 | 2.6155 | 2.24** |
| γ5 | -1.2928 | -1.10 |
| γ6 | 1.5239 | 1.58 |
| γ7 | -2.5523 | -2.73*** |
| γ8 | 1.7326 | 1.60 |
| γ9 | -0.2497 | -0.30 |
Persistence:
0.432
Half-life:
1 days
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