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V-Lab

Cafe24 Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

91.99%

increased by 38.68%

1 Week

72.80%

increased by 19.49%

1 Month

63.45%

increased by 10.14%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 07:50 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Cafe24 Corp S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 8, 2018 to Jul 16, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0599
4.92***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1958
3.31***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.2363
1.67*
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.8348
-0.94
γ22.2918
1.51
γ3-3.1367
-2.39**
γ42.6155
2.24**
γ5-1.2928
-1.10
γ61.5239
1.58
γ7-2.5523
-2.73***
γ81.7326
1.60
γ9-0.2497
-0.30

Persistence:

0.432

Half-life:

1 days