V-Lab
Cafe24 Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
85.64%
increased by 13.37%
1 Week
84.89%
increased by 12.62%
1 Month
82.38%
increased by 10.11%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 07:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 8, 2018 to Jul 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 23 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 23 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.15 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 20.4629 | 3.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0848 | 23.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9698 | 115.85*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.1463 | 11.65*** |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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