V-Lab
Heungkuk Fire & Marine Insurance Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
43.18%
1 Week
46.90%
1 Month
54.68%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 12:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 23% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1970 | 31.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7083 | 92.06*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0366 | -4.15*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1378 | 4.26*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2943 | 7.28*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7030 | 16.04*** |
Persistence:
0.887
Half-life:
6 days
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