V-Lab
Heungkuk Fire & Marine Insurance Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
50.24%
1 Week
53.13%
1 Month
57.19%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 04:06 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 28% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 116 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1917 | 32.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7348 | 121.72*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0414 | -5.30*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.3611 | 7.18*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 1.0000 | 22.70*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.906
Half-life:
7 days
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