V-Lab
Heungkuk Fire & Marine Insurance Co Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
43.87%
decreased by 2.02%
1 Week
44.34%
decreased by 1.55%
1 Month
46.11%
increased by 0.22%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 11:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 137 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 13% more than negative returns
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1035 | 18.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1301 | 37.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8699 | 260.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0330 | -2.47** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.8845 | 38.61*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
137 days
Other Heungkuk Fire & Marine Insurance Co Ltd Analyses
Other APARCH Analyses on International Equities