V-Lab
Heungkuk Fire & Marine Insurance Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
55.18%
decreased by 5.37%
1 Week
55.42%
decreased by 5.13%
1 Month
56.38%
decreased by 4.17%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 248 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.77 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 31.5589 | 8.01*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1145 | 133.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9972 | 3,031.03*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.7708 | 97.62*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
248 days
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