V-Lab
Heungkuk Fire & Marine Insurance Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
44.71%
decreased by 3.99%
1 Week
45.35%
decreased by 3.35%
1 Month
47.15%
decreased by 1.55%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9312 | 5.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1786 | 9.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7686 | 38.43*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0146 | 1.44 |
| γ2 | -0.0422 | -2.85*** |
| γ3 | 0.0259 | 2.45** |
| γ4 | 0.0314 | 3.20*** |
| γ5 | -0.0441 | -6.10*** |
Persistence:
0.947
Half-life:
13 days
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