V-Lab
Vulcan Energy Resources Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
3,839.83
increased by 392.81
1 Week
3,833.50
increased by 386.48
1 Month
3,665.32
increased by 218.30
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 05:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 30, 2018 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5321 | 2.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1484 | 6.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6957 | 9.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -3.8830 | -6.48*** |
| γ2 | 6.7350 | 8.04*** |
| γ3 | -3.3203 | -9.02*** |
| γ4 | 0.1303 | 0.61 |
| γ5 | 0.4581 | 1.78* |
Persistence:
0.844
Half-life:
4 days
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