V-Lab
Vulcan Energy Resources Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
3,771.66
increased by 469.49
1 Week
3,582.90
increased by 280.73
1 Month
4,149.08
increased by 846.91
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 05:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 30, 2018 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 366 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: illiquidity responds almost entirely to negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0104 | 1.39 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9456 | 318.71*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0843 | 4.95*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
366 days
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