V-Lab
USCB Financial Holdings Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
7,266.52
decreased by 519.25
1 Week
9,007.08
increased by 1,221.31
1 Month
11,277.40
increased by 3,491.63
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 23, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.8727 | 3.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2008 | 5.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7359 | 15.96*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.4334 | 2.52** |
| γ2 | -0.8396 | -3.14*** |
Persistence:
0.937
Half-life:
11 days
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