Uravi Defence and Technology Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
15,364.87
increased by 10,735.26
1 Week
9,280.79
increased by 4,651.18
1 Month
6,441.64
increased by 1,812.03
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 07:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 30, 2018 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 135 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.1488 | 1.76* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4246 | 7.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5703 | 10.01*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -17.2382 | -0.89 |
| γ2 | 24.2763 | 0.94 |
| γ3 | -18.3066 | -1.48 |
| γ4 | 26.2502 | 2.23** |
| γ5 | -26.9196 | -2.01** |
| γ6 | 28.6782 | 1.87* |
| γ7 | -43.2669 | -2.25** |
| γ8 | 48.8119 | 2.49** |
| γ9 | -31.0520 | -2.19** |
| γ10 | 8.3649 | 0.74 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
135 days
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