V-Lab
Uravi Defence and Technology Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
58,440.93
increased by 17,953.23
1 Week
45,435.49
increased by 4,947.79
1 Month
37,620.28
decreased by 2,867.42
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 30, 2018 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 144 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.1722 | 1.83* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4097 | 7.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5854 | 11.46*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -16.3652 | -0.86 |
| γ2 | 22.8952 | 0.90 |
| γ3 | -17.8555 | -1.43 |
| γ4 | 27.2149 | 2.23** |
| γ5 | -28.1144 | -2.26** |
| γ6 | 28.2131 | 2.24** |
| γ7 | -45.5497 | -2.18** |
| γ8 | 60.1962 | 2.10** |
| γ9 | -48.4811 | -2.04** |
| γ10 | 32.9039 | 1.91* |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
144 days
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