Uravi Defence and Technology Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
7,740.25
increased by 4,423.07
1 Week
5,200.47
increased by 1,883.29
1 Month
5,331.79
increased by 2,014.61
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 07:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 30, 2018 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.07 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3622 | 2.16** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7243 | 25.83*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1729 | -0.96 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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