V-Lab
United Carton Industries Co Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 29th, 2026
1 Day
4,056.95
decreased by 418.89
1 Week
4,907.97
increased by 432.13
1 Month
4,357.53
decreased by 118.31
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 08:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 27, 2025 to Jul 23, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0515 | 10.38*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1026 | 2.43** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8046 | 7.87*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.5453 | -2.22** |
Persistence:
0.907
Half-life:
7 days
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