V-Lab
United Carton Industries Co Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 29th, 2026
1 Day
5,343.24
decreased by 247.70
1 Week
5,992.90
increased by 401.96
1 Month
4,422.06
decreased by 1,168.88
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 08:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 27, 2025 to Jul 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 164 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: illiquidity responds almost entirely to negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.38 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0105 | 1.14 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9345 | 159.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1015 | 4.77*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
164 days
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