GD Power Development Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
14.22
decreased by 1.04
1 Week
15.45
increased by 0.19
1 Month
16.63
increased by 1.37
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 07:04 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 18, 1997 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 408 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 144% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~408 daysAsymmetry: Illiquidity rises 144% more after negative returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1109 | 1.29 |
| αARCH | 0.0548 | 3.73*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9039 | 113.96*** |
| γleverage | 0.0792 | 3.52*** |
0.998
Persistence408d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1109 | 1.29 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0548 | 3.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9039 | 113.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0792 | 3.52*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
408 days
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