V-Lab
GD Power Development Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026
1 Day
18.32
decreased by 1.05
1 Week
20.76
increased by 1.39
1 Month
19.06
decreased by 0.31
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 06:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 18, 1997 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 132 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0901 | 3.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1831 | 20.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8117 | 94.92*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0693 | 0.33 |
| γ2 | -1.0282 | -2.94*** |
| γ3 | 3.3603 | 7.16*** |
| γ4 | -4.2208 | -5.84*** |
| γ5 | 2.5017 | 3.29*** |
| γ6 | -2.1766 | -3.49*** |
| γ7 | 3.4527 | 7.13*** |
| γ8 | -2.8307 | -8.73*** |
| γ9 | 0.9675 | 4.87*** |
| γ10 | -0.0977 | -0.43 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
132 days
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