How volatility evolves over time

How illiquidity evolves over time

{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
mwindow	36
αARCH	0.0565	1.36
βGARCH	0.8165	28.73***
γleverage	0.1313	1.80*
λ₁tau intercept	3.4858	1.41
λ₂forecast adj.	0.5495	4.14***
λ₃tau persistence	0.4505	14.12***

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	36
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.0565	1.36
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.8165	28.73***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	0.1313	1.80*
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	3.4858	1.41
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.5495	4.14***
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.4505	14.12***

V-Lab

GD Power Development Co Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Illiquidity Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other GD Power Development Co Ltd Analyses