V-Lab
CRRC Corp Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
14.75
decreased by 0.36
1 Week
14.72
decreased by 0.39
1 Month
13.10
decreased by 2.01
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 07:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 18, 2008 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 27 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5135 | 5.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2056 | 16.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7693 | 41.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.2936 | 1.37 |
| γ2 | -1.1893 | -3.54*** |
| γ3 | 1.7942 | 11.49*** |
| γ4 | -1.1639 | -12.09*** |
| γ5 | 0.3159 | 3.07*** |
| γ6 | -0.1236 | -1.03 |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
27 days
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