CRRC Corp Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
13.26
1 Week
13.71
1 Month
12.56
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 18, 2008 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0778 | 0.11 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6120 | 3.10*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2779 | 0.21 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2.8374 | 0.09 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.9988 | 0.10 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0012 | 0.11 |
Persistence:
0.829
Half-life:
4 days
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