V-Lab
CRRC Corp Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
15.63
increased by 2.39
1 Week
12.74
decreased by 0.50
1 Month
13.12
decreased by 0.12
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 03:07 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 18, 2008 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1550 trading days (~6.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 30% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6266 | 15.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1847 | 20.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7870 | 313.91*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0557 | 3.57*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1550 days
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