V-Lab
CRRC Corp Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
14.54
decreased by 0.83
1 Week
15.35
decreased by 0.02
1 Month
15.10
decreased by 0.27
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 06:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 18, 2008 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1115 trading days (~4.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~1115 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6147 | 3.88*** |
| αARCH | 0.1835 | 5.11*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7885 | 78.45*** |
| γleverage | 0.0548 | 0.88 |
0.999
Persistence1115d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6147 | 3.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1835 | 5.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7885 | 78.45*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0548 | 0.88 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1115 days
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