V-Lab
CRRC Corp Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
15.01
decreased by 0.22
1 Week
15.97
increased by 0.74
1 Month
13.58
decreased by 1.65
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 06:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 18, 2008 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1526 trading days (~6.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 30% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6235 | 15.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1846 | 20.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7873 | 313.65*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0554 | 3.55*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1526 days
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