V-Lab
Sona Topas Tourism TBK (Pt) Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
5,654.32
increased by 3,101.93
1 Week
3,369.60
increased by 817.21
1 Month
1,254.24
decreased by 1,298.15
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 02:28 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 24, 1994 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 509 trading days (~2.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3986 | 1.58 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1802 | 5.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8185 | 25.25*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 1.0377 | 1.49 |
| γ2 | -3.7846 | -2.43** |
| γ3 | 5.0755 | 2.53** |
| γ4 | -3.1510 | -1.55 |
| γ5 | 1.7718 | 1.34 |
| γ6 | -3.3318 | -3.61*** |
| γ7 | 4.9725 | 4.65*** |
| γ8 | -3.6038 | -2.73*** |
| γ9 | -0.5014 | -0.30 |
| γ10 | 4.5597 | 3.26*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
509 days
Other Sona Topas Tourism TBK (Pt) Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on International Equities