V-Lab
Sona Topas Tourism TBK (Pt) ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
6,624.73
1 Week
3,917.86
1 Month
1,418.42
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 02:28 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 24, 1994 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 101 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1967 | 2.46** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8949 | 345.77*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1967 | -1.24 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9971 | 722.50*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
101 days
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