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Sona Topas Tourism TBK (Pt) ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

6,624.73

increased by 3,501.78

1 Week

3,917.86

increased by 794.91

1 Month

1,418.42

decreased by 1,704.53

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 02:28 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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2Y ·

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graph of Sona Topas Tourism TBK (Pt) ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 24, 1994 to Aug 7, 2026
Illiquid Asset

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 101 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1967
2.46**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8949
345.77***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1967
-1.24
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.01
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9971
722.50***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

101 days