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Sona Topas Tourism TBK (Pt) Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

1,910.24

increased by 256.45

1 Week

1,666.76

increased by 12.97

1 Month

905.86

decreased by 747.93

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 02:27 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Sona Topas Tourism TBK (Pt) ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 24, 1994 to Aug 7, 2026
Illiquid Asset

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 324% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.43
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0165
5.20***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9568
685.40***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0534
5.13***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days