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V-Lab

SAN Miguel Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

1,082.48

decreased by 133.97

1 Week

1,282.66

increased by 66.21

1 Month

2,215.62

increased by 999.17

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 05:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of SAN Miguel Corp ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 24, 1994 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8607
5.26***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1370
9.20***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8309
45.52***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.1444
-1.47
γ20.3178
1.93*
γ3-0.4170
-3.23***
γ40.5041
4.36***
γ5-0.6878
-5.26***
γ60.9241
8.15***
γ7-0.8389
-10.74***
γ80.5968
7.80***
γ9-0.4293
-5.36***
γ100.3209
2.52**

Persistence:

0.968

Half-life:

21 days