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Datang Huayin Electric Power Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
37.71
increased by 0.96
1 Month
34.82
decreased by 1.93
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 06:28 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 5, 1996 to Sep 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 756 trading days (~3.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~756 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2862 | 5.35*** |
| αARCH | 0.2560 | 9.58*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7431 | 27.75*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0326 | 0.18 |
| γ2 | -0.0500 | -0.17 |
| γ3 | -2.0301 | -1.54 |
| γ4 | 6.6701 | 1.61 |
| γ5 | -8.6399 | -1.64 |
| γ6 | 6.2826 | 1.67* |
| γ7 | -3.1678 | -1.64 |
| γ8 | 0.8928 | 1.26 |
0.999
Persistence756d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2862 | 5.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2560 | 9.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7431 | 27.75*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0326 | 0.18 |
| γ2 | -0.0500 | -0.17 |
| γ3 | -2.0301 | -1.54 |
| γ4 | 6.6701 | 1.61 |
| γ5 | -8.6399 | -1.64 |
| γ6 | 6.2826 | 1.67* |
| γ7 | -3.1678 | -1.64 |
| γ8 | 0.8928 | 1.26 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
756 days
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