Barratt Redrow PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026
1 Day
1,035.63
increased by 59.56
1 Week
1,028.14
increased by 52.07
1 Month
981.87
increased by 5.80
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 08:43 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 11, 1991 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 177 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~177 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.5223 | 5.66*** |
| αARCH | 0.0867 | 11.00*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9094 | 130.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0405 | -3.14*** |
| γ2 | 0.0719 | 3.41*** |
| γ3 | -0.0449 | -3.01*** |
0.996
Persistence177d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5223 | 5.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0867 | 11.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9094 | 130.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0405 | -3.14*** |
| γ2 | 0.0719 | 3.41*** |
| γ3 | -0.0449 | -3.01*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
177 days
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