Skip to main content
V-Lab

SAN Miguel Corp Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

1,945.33

decreased by 109.40

1 Week

2,149.28

increased by 94.55

1 Month

2,741.80

increased by 687.07

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 05:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of SAN Miguel Corp ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 24, 1994 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 436 trading days (~1.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 173% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.2360
3.96***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0286
8.49***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9450
486.86***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0496
9.37***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

436 days