V-Lab
SmartGroup Corp Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
2,464.52
decreased by 65.15
1 Week
2,485.63
decreased by 44.04
1 Month
2,455.23
decreased by 74.44
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 10:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 2, 2014 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 288 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2820 | 3.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1014 | 9.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8962 | 90.66*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0049 | 0.26 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
288 days
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