V-Lab
SmartGroup Corp Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
3,374.88
decreased by 88.23
1 Week
3,652.21
increased by 189.10
1 Month
2,922.72
decreased by 540.39
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 05:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 2, 2014 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 242 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2986 | 3.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1013 | 9.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8958 | 89.45*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0079 | 0.51 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
242 days
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