SmartGroup Corp Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
3,059.23
decreased by 128.67
1 Week
3,100.91
decreased by 86.99
1 Month
3,223.42
increased by 35.52
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 12:59 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 2, 2014 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 246 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~246 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2928 | 3.86*** |
| αARCH | 0.0999 | 9.82*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8973 | 91.66*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0069 | 0.44 |
0.997
Persistence246d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2928 | 3.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0999 | 9.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8973 | 91.66*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0069 | 0.44 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
246 days
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