V-Lab
SmartGroup Corp Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
2,242.80
1 Week
2,160.85
1 Month
2,133.95
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 10:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 2, 2014 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 53% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 1.37 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0717 | 17.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9094 | 436.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0379 | 4.55*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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