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SmartGroup Corp Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

2,242.80

decreased by 22.00

1 Week

2,160.85

decreased by 103.95

1 Month

2,133.95

decreased by 130.85

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 10:05 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of SmartGroup Corp Ltd ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 2, 2014 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 53% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
1.37
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0717
17.34***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9094
436.14***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0379
4.55***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days