V-Lab
SmartGroup Corp Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
2,495.65
1 Week
2,515.99
1 Month
2,487.09
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 10:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 2, 2014 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0969 | 10.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8898 | 332.26*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0969 | -3.46*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 4.5985 | 89.41*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9954 | 761.01*** |
Persistence:
0.938
Half-life:
11 days
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