SmartGroup Corp Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
2,617.23
1 Week
2,496.50
1 Month
2,532.99
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 05:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 2, 2014 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0971 | 10.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8897 | 331.72*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0971 | -3.46*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 4.5955 | 89.48*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9954 | 760.43*** |
Persistence:
0.938
Half-life:
11 days
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