SmartGroup Corp Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
3,012.37
1 Week
3,034.55
1 Month
3,153.53
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 08:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 2, 2014 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 126 | |
| αARCH | 0.0955 | 12.26*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8912 | 101.32*** |
| γleverage | -0.0955 | -2.35** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 4.6106 | 2.94*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9954 | 217.06*** |
0.939
Persistence11d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0955 | 12.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8912 | 101.32*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0955 | -2.35** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 4.6106 | 2.94*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9954 | 217.06*** |
Persistence:
0.939
Half-life:
11 days
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