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Singer Bangladesh Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 1st, 2026

1 Day

12,371.90

increased by 8,369.14

1 Week

5,404.74

increased by 1,401.98

1 Month

4,994.89

increased by 992.13

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 1, 2026 at 06:14 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Singer Bangladesh Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 20, 2003 to Aug 27, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 98 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

11.8501
4.21***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.5400
43.39***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4529
50.52***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.1466
-0.32
γ2-0.2066
-0.37
γ31.1520
4.26***
γ4-1.4137
-3.67***
γ5-15.6021
-4.30***
γ652.8094
4.83***
γ7-65.9589
-5.81***
γ845.0266
10.03***
γ9-22.2793
-9.35***
γ106.7636
3.07***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

98 days