V-Lab
Singer Bangladesh Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 1st, 2026
1 Day
12,371.90
increased by 8,369.14
1 Week
5,404.74
increased by 1,401.98
1 Month
4,994.89
increased by 992.13
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 1, 2026 at 06:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 20, 2003 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 98 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 11.8501 | 4.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5400 | 43.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4529 | 50.52*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.1466 | -0.32 |
| γ2 | -0.2066 | -0.37 |
| γ3 | 1.1520 | 4.26*** |
| γ4 | -1.4137 | -3.67*** |
| γ5 | -15.6021 | -4.30*** |
| γ6 | 52.8094 | 4.83*** |
| γ7 | -65.9589 | -5.81*** |
| γ8 | 45.0266 | 10.03*** |
| γ9 | -22.2793 | -9.35*** |
| γ10 | 6.7636 | 3.07*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
98 days
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