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Singer Bangladesh Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 1st, 2026

1 Day

9,557.85

increased by 5,823.72

1 Week

4,826.07

increased by 1,091.94

1 Month

4,125.16

increased by 391.03

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 1, 2026 at 06:14 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Singer Bangladesh Ltd ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 20, 2003 to Aug 27, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 102% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6114
5.76***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1821
24.07***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7252
170.08***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1854
10.04***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-