Semilux International Ltd -Redh Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
522,244,100.00
decreased by 119,261,400.00
1 Week
603,254,450.00
decreased by 38,251,050.00
1 Month
514,935,999.44
decreased by 126,569,500.56
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 09:56 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 28, 2022 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0515 | 1.78* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3252 | 4.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4406 | 5.14*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -37.4991 | -3.57*** |
| γ2 | 54.5662 | 3.82*** |
| γ3 | -19.2647 | -2.54** |
| γ4 | 9.0390 | 1.05 |
| γ5 | -14.2432 | -1.44 |
| γ6 | 5.7651 | 0.69 |
| γ7 | 2.3467 | 0.33 |
| γ8 | -7.9789 | -1.01 |
| γ9 | 42.1820 | 2.59*** |
Persistence:
0.766
Half-life:
3 days
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