V-Lab
Semilux International Ltd -Redh Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
2,087,666,000,000,000.00
decreased by 6,646,000,000,000.00
1 Week
1,229,188,320,000,000.00
decreased by 865,123,680,000,000.00
1 Month
471,956,016,714,285.70
decreased by 1,622,355,983,285,714.20
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 09:27 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 28, 2022 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0011 | 1.57 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4140 | 4.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4853 | 6.56*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -46.7724 | -3.64*** |
| γ2 | 65.5849 | 3.79*** |
| γ3 | -21.1247 | -1.71* |
| γ4 | 8.8698 | 0.61 |
| γ5 | -9.6075 | -0.75 |
| γ6 | 1.0316 | 0.11 |
| γ7 | -4.7554 | -0.49 |
| γ8 | 16.3387 | 1.62 |
| γ9 | -54.4231 | -5.16*** |
| γ10 | 246.8667 | 12.90*** |
Persistence:
0.899
Half-life:
7 days
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