V-Lab
Semilux International Ltd -Redh Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
15,970,770,000,000,000.00
decreased by 122,670,000,000,000.00
1 Week
11,163,481,250,000,000.00
decreased by 4,929,958,750,000,000.00
1 Month
3,526,284,106,428,571.50
decreased by 12,567,155,893,571,428.00
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 28, 2022 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0004 | 1.55 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4224 | 4.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4697 | 6.38*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -46.9703 | -3.68*** |
| γ2 | 66.2645 | 3.87*** |
| γ3 | -22.2141 | -1.88* |
| γ4 | 10.1515 | 0.72 |
| γ5 | -11.1690 | -0.87 |
| γ6 | 1.9368 | 0.20 |
| γ7 | -3.6121 | -0.38 |
| γ8 | 12.5529 | 1.29 |
| γ9 | -39.9745 | -4.02*** |
| γ10 | 238.1216 | 21.83*** |
Persistence:
0.892
Half-life:
6 days
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