Semilux International Ltd -Redh ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
698,587,400.00
1 Week
832,931,850.00
1 Month
593,123,357.78
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 09:56 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 28, 2022 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 909 trading days (~3.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2988 | 28.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7763 | 133.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1517 | -11.66*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 14,993,590.0000 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
909 days
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