V-Lab
Semilux International Ltd -Redh Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026
1 Day
13,433,400,000,000.00
1 Week
18,400,368,000,000.00
1 Month
28,043,546,000,000.00
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 01:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 28, 2022 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 0.00 |
| αARCH | 0.0015 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8635 | 0.26 |
| γleverage | 0.2699 | 0.01 |
1.000
Persistence1386294d
Half-lifeILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0015 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8635 | 0.26 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2699 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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