V-Lab
Sea Oil Pcl Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
7,253.16
increased by 499.67
1 Week
6,477.46
decreased by 276.03
1 Month
5,398.09
decreased by 1,355.40
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 09:21 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 5, 2013 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 493 trading days (~2.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1876 | 3.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2818 | 12.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7168 | 32.78*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.0995 | -0.49 |
| γ2 | 0.0597 | 0.21 |
| γ3 | -0.2782 | -1.58 |
| γ4 | 1.0727 | 5.87*** |
| γ5 | -1.8801 | -6.18*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
493 days
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