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Sea Oil Pcl Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026

1 Day

7,253.16

increased by 499.67

1 Week

6,477.46

decreased by 276.03

1 Month

5,398.09

decreased by 1,355.40

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 09:21 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Sea Oil Pcl ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 5, 2013 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 493 trading days (~2.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1876
3.09***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2818
12.87***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7168
32.78***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ1-0.0995
-0.49
γ20.0597
0.21
γ3-0.2782
-1.58
γ41.0727
5.87***
γ5-1.8801
-6.18***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

493 days