V-Lab
Sea Oil Pcl ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
7,374.81
1 Week
6,795.83
1 Month
6,040.47
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 09:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 5, 2013 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2611 | 0.02 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6483 | 2.19** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2611 | -0.01 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.02 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2102 | 0.02 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7898 | 0.49 |
Persistence:
0.779
Half-life:
3 days
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