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Sea Oil Pcl Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026

1 Day

6,076.20

increased by 1,116.71

1 Week

5,290.03

increased by 330.54

1 Month

4,898.05

decreased by 61.44

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 09:20 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Sea Oil Pcl ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 5, 2013 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 157% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
2.52**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0969
15.35***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8269
203.21***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1525
10.90***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-