V-Lab
Ryojbaba Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
246,052.60
decreased by 7,881.20
1 Week
435,665.32
increased by 181,731.52
1 Month
472,341.35
increased by 218,407.55
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 14, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 321 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9072 | 3.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4553 | 6.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5426 | 7.24*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -12.8245 | -2.13** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
321 days
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