V-Lab
Ryojbaba Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
641,962.00
decreased by 236,594.40
1 Week
1,001,134.80
increased by 122,578.40
1 Month
819,793.52
decreased by 58,762.88
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 10:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 14, 2025 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1119 trading days (~4.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9042 | 3.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4612 | 6.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5382 | 7.75*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -17.5877 | -1.64 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1119 days
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